US would be wise not to militarily intervene in the Taiwan question

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In a recent Op-ed, Mr. Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, provided the US with another opportunity to comprehend the dangers and futility of continuing to meddle in China's sovereign internal affairs. In a recent Global Times Op-ed, Hu argued that US elites can "hate" China, but they must at the same time fear China and accept China's way of dealing with the Taiwan question because that is, in fact, the only option available to the US.

Hu's address was diplomatic and conciliatory, and emphasized there is still time for the US to follow a different path that does not lead to war. But American elites will surely dismiss his advice just as their predecessors have since 1949.   

So, perhaps those elites would rather hear the observations of an American and recent government insider, a compatriot who loves his country, and feels obligated to reinforce Hu's observations with sobering realities before it is too late.

Hu suggested that the US would be wise to think twice before militarily intervening because China's qualitative and quantitative military modernization has shifted the cross-Straits and global balance of power. The certainty of US conventional and strategic nuclear overmatch in a war over Taiwan has indeed evaporated. As Hu noted, Beijing is not deterred from forcefully reunifying One China, if that is what's needed.

Even wiser might be a preemptive presidential directive for all US military forces to stand-down if China elects forceful reunification. From the perspective of cognitive and physical realities, that option is the only way for any president to preserve US regional influence, the all-volunteer joint force, and the US homeland. It would also be an honorable recognition of the irrefutable realities that tempers or silences Taiwan's secessionists.

Some will warn that if the president acknowledges these realities and changes course they will be confirming US national security vulnerabilities that are otherwise confidentially protected. Yet, despite their assurances the US military, national security agencies, defense industry and media have lacked self-discipline. In pursuit of financial and political self-interests they have drawn a concerning comparative picture in the public domain for over 30 years by bragging about and advertising useful information. Open domain research reveals that the US is placed at great risk with its Taiwan policy.

In balance of power analyses the relevance of physical military comparisons pales next to the cognitive-moral domain where the strengths of opposing wills are compared. It is obvious that the fate of Taiwan island has and always will mean more to China than it will to the US and its hodgepodge of loosely-aligned Asian and European allies. In fact, the US and the West lost the cognitive war over Taiwan island long ago in 1949. Fortunately for the US, physical shots have not yet been fired, though that catastrophe is approaching fast.

When only 38 percent of Americans support deploying US troops in the case of a mainland attack on Taiwan, a lack of US will to fight China is evident. In stark contrast, One China reunification is an emotional core priority for 1.4 billion increasingly nationalistic Chinese citizens. Short of US defeat or withdrawal the battlefield will surely extend beyond Taiwan island, throughout the Indo-Pacific, and potentially encompass the US homeland. American hesitancy should be urgently replaced by fear. 

It is human nature to reject assertions of competitors. But Hu's message, while uncomfortable for US elites, is spot on. Americans will ignore his words at their own peril. If skepticism still remains, then readers should start paying close attention to fellow Americans in the US with relevant insight into who is willing to confirm Hu's message as the objective truth.

The author is a retired Marine Corps infantry officer and a former Pentagon employee. Opinions are of the author and do not represent the US government.